The death toll from the Islamic Civil War rises daily and American politicians are restless; telling each other and the public that the US must do something about it. They would have us join the killing in yet another effort to impose peace through war. We have been down this road several times with increasingly disastrous results yet most Republicans and many Democrats in Congress say that we can’t stand by and do nothing. But doing nothing is an option and I have yet to hear a better alternative.
In recent history we have fought two wars in Iraq, one in Afghanistan, and overthrown a nearly democratic government of Iran; replacing it with a dictator (the Shah) who was later overthrown by anti-American Islamic insurgents. Recently we have supported one side or another that we thought might be pro-American or pro-democratic or somehow better than the status quo in Egypt, Libya and Syria. The results were wasted lives, wasted money, suffering, poverty and more radicals in each nation. If we get involved again, the result will be more of the same, and our safety will not be improved.
We must not mistake this long-running religious civil war within Islam for national wars about personal freedom, democracy or borders. This war will not be confined by lines on maps. I do not pretend to understand the enmity among Sunnis, Shiites, Sufis and other Moslem sects any more than I understand the bloodshed among Christian groups like Roman Catholics, Protestants and various Eastern European sects. I do know that Christian religious wars crossed international boundaries and even altered them. Despite voices of reason, governments and religions in Europe and Asia formed alliances and fought religious-political wars for over a thousand years before achieving the brief peace that we have enjoyed since Christians quit killing each other in the name of God. The warring sects, nations and individuals had to find peace themselves. The Islamic Civil War looks very similar. We can’t enforce peace or freedom at the point of a gun.
The religious divide is complicated by various cultures including Kurds, Turks, Arabs, Persians, multiple African cultures and local leaders among all of them with their own interests and territories. Those territories overlap much like the territories of street gangs. National borders mean little and are unenforceable because loyalty is to the family, the religious sect and the tribe rather than to the nation. Americans have no credibility with any of those subgroups. They may align with us temporarily if we bring enough weapons and money to their cause but when our money and weapons are gone, we will bear their blame for our contributions to the killing and suffering. Meanwhile, the conflict will continue until the people of the region learn to live together.
Iraq, Syria, Egypt and Libya had genuinely oppressive dictatorships but they were nations in gradual transition on their own terms with their own conflicts. France, Britain, Italy and Germany all evolved through similar stages into the relatively free and peaceful nations that they are today. Thanks to previous Western intervention and the intransigence of the locals, the evolution in the Middle East has stopped and has gone backwards. The anarchy and chaos now prevalent there will require many decades for resolution. It took centuries in Europe.
As strong as the enmity and hatred is among the people of the Middle East, many of them have come to despise Americans even more than they despise each other. They don’t like us and perhaps more important, they don’t trust us. We are capable of invading and killing a lot of people; but we are not capable of invading and imposing our values on the people of the Middle East. They will resist and some of them will fight a guerrilla war against us. When you are on the other end of guerrilla warfare, it goes by a different name – terrorism. History proves that big armies can’t totally defeat guerrillas who work in small, loosely organized cells. Americans see the French Resistance during WWII as heroes. The Vichy French Government saw them as terrorists who bombed trains. Whether they are called guerrillas or terrorists, Islamic insurgents are not going to quit until they voluntarily conclude that their God does not want them to bludgeon each other.
The situation isn’t hopeless. After Islamic nations achieve a bit of stability we might be helpful through cultural and educational exchanges. Our rewards for military intervention however, even if it is limited to advisors or air strikes, will be more flag draped American caskets, more wounded veterans, more enemies around the world who would like to do something to hurt us (terrorists), a bigger national debt, and continued inability to fund priorities for our own citizens including infrastructure, education and human services.
It doesn’t take a genius to reach these conclusions but it does take courage for an American politician to say publicly that these are not our fights and that we can’t impose workable solutions on people who want to kill each other. I hope that wisdom and courage will prevail and that the American public will convince our leaders that we are not willing to take one more trip down the road to warfare unless it is in immediate self-defense.