It’s time for honest consideration of the problems facing Social Security but first, the good news. The Social Security Trust Fund, from which benefits are paid, has a balance of $2.9 trillion. The money that was deducted from our paychecks and the matching contributions from our employers built that bala Continue reading FUNDING SOCIAL SECURITY
Tag Archives: wages
WILL YOU BE FIRED?
“Oh people, look around you. The signs are everywhere. You’ve left it for somebody other than you to be the one to care.” Jackson Brown wrote those lyrics to “Rock me on the water” (click to hear Keb Mo sing it) about 50 years ago. Today his words seem to haunt our future as much as they did our past.
There are more than 7.5 billion of us humans and our numbers continue to grow. Who cares about the unintended consequences of our collective actions? Our individual choices about economics, environment, health and other questions seem to be our personal business until we consider their collective effect. Continue reading WILL YOU BE FIRED?
THE ECONOMY MUST SERVE PEOPLE
“The economy must serve people, not the other way around.” That is the opening sentence of the US Conference of Catholic Bishops’ statement “The Dignity of Work and the Rights of Workers“. Regardless of your religious beliefs, I encourage readers to look it up on the internet. It’s easy to understand the values being taught but challenging to apply them in our lives, businesses and government. Continue reading THE ECONOMY MUST SERVE PEOPLE
Let’s start winning
Sister Jean-Delores Schmidt is a 98 year old nun who serves as a chaplain for the Loyola University basketball team and travels with them. Defying odds and expectations, the team earned a spot in the final four of the men’s basketball tournament. During the celebration, a reporter asked Sister Jean, “What did you give up for lent?” “Losing” she replied with a smile. Think about that for a moment. Continue reading Let’s start winning
WE CAN CHOOSE HOPE OVER DESPAIR
“There are people whose lives are so hard they break.” Those are the words of Eileen Crimmins, a professor at the University of Southern California. She wasn’t talking about Syrian refugees or undocumented immigrants. She was talking about a large subgroup of white American citizens.
The average life expectancy of white Americans age 25-54 declined between 1999 and 2014 because of a rapid rise in premature deaths from drug overdoses, suicides, and cirrhosis associated with alcohol consumption. The death rate from drug overdoses among 25 -34 year old whites was five times higher in 2014 than in 1999. It tripled among 35 – 44 year olds. By 2014, the overdose death rate among whites was double the rate for blacks or Hispanics. Although whites still live longer, the black-white gap closed considerably because of the premature white deaths.
The rising death rates are heavily concentrated among whites without college degrees. Rural areas and small towns of the Southeast, Southwest, and the Midwestern “rustbelt” have been especially hard hit.
Why are so many white Americans killing themselves with drugs, alcohol and guns? (Almost half of all American suicides are by gun.) The most common hypothesis among researchers is that these are “deaths of despair” among Americans who no longer have hope for a satisfactory future.
Economists, sociologists, psychologists and public health researchers are only beginning to study and understand this troubling trend. It’s clear that the problems of poverty, lack of jobs with good wages, and lack of education have existed at higher rates among black Americans than among whites for all of our history but it’s the white Americans who are killing themselves with drugs, alcohol and guns. Why?
One hypothesis is that this large group of white Americans have been taught to expect that, like their parents, they could support a family and live middle-class lives with a high school education. They counted on factory work, and semi-skilled labor to pay for necessities and a few luxuries. Those expectations have been shattered. They blame corporations, immigrants, government, and public policy (such as trade treaties) for their plight. They also point a finger at themselves and far too many turn to drugs, alcohol, and suicide as avenues of escape.
The white labor class may be suffering so much despair because they are just now experiencing what the black labor class, unprotected by labor unions and discriminated against by employers, have known from childhood. They can’t pay their way into the middle class. In many cases their marriages have failed and their families have shattered under the stress of economic pressures. Many lack the literacy skills, time and money to pursue better opportunities. They see little hope for themselves and their communities.
Our economy will use the least expensive combination of machines, computers, and people to produce goods and services. Then it will sell those goods and services in exchange for more money and repeat the process. In that environment, it is up to each individual to find a way to succeed. Otherwise, the economy will find you to be expendable.
Blame is irrelevant. The important question is, “What future will we choose to create?” The replacement of human work with automation and artificial intelligence has barely begun and no one knows how rapidly it will accelerate. A report by PWC, an international consulting firm, says that 38% of American jobs are at high risk of replacement by automation in the next 15 years.
We shouldn’t even try to stop the trend, but we do need to prepare for it. Public education must be redesigned to prepare every student for life-long learning at the college level. Parents and communities must encourage and support it because jobs with good wages will require continuous learning at that level. Even if manufacturing returns to the US, the old jobs will not accompany it. There will be far more automation and the new jobs will require skills that few of us have today. In addition, minimum wage, healthcare, and other public policies must be sufficient to support viable families.
As we envision our futures, it’s good to remember Jackson Browne’s line, “You can dream but you can never go back the way you came.” We can create a good future, but it won’t be the same as our past. We must not sacrifice another generation of Americans by preparing them for a future that won’t exist. Instead, we should prepare them for hope and success.
References for further reading:
Commonwealth fund brief on white mortality trends
What is the future of our jobs?
Today I’d like to introduce you to SAM. His full name is Semi Automated Mason. SAM can lay as many bricks as three human masons. He has only one year of experience and will become more skilled and productive as he continues to learn. On the other hand, SAM could become unemployed when on-site 3-D printing of walls becomes feasible. It’s being tested now.
SAM’s story is important because it exemplifies a worldwide trend. We are still in the early days of an economic and social upheaval that will be bigger than the industrial revolution; and we’re not prepared for what’s coming. An Oxford University study identified jobs most and least likely to be replaced by automation. Looking at the list, it becomes apparent that some among us will benefit from less expensive products and services produced through automation while others lose their jobs.
It’s going to happen regardless of what presidential candidates promise about creating jobs or trade treaties. Even in China and undeveloped nations, automation is faster and cheaper than human labor. That is true in the production of both “things” and services. Human operators for elevators and long distance phone calls were displaced a long time ago. Soon automation will replace us in jobs as diverse as loan officer, manicurist, and drivers – not just drivers of taxis but also of trucks and buses.
In economic terms, this revolution means that fewer people can produce more goods and services. The total amount of wealth available will increase. Some of us will benefit from that but those who are replaced probably won’t. If you’re old enough to remember it, think of what happened when mechanized agriculture drove down the cost of eggs, milk, corn, cotton and other products. They became cheaper while previously successful farm families were devastated by agribusiness competition. Today we can see entire communities and families that are no longer self-sufficient because their jobs are gone.
The much-talked-about decline of the middle class is not primarily caused (and won’t be fixed) by tax or trade policies. Instead, it is caused in large part by technologies that are cheaper and more productive than human labor. This inevitable change brings opportunities along with threats.
What then, shall we do to prepare ourselves?
- Know the facts. It’s particularly important for elected officials, educators, economic developers, city planners and business leaders to correctly anticipate the future and plan for it. News media can improve public knowledge by researching and reporting on these subjects.
- Understand the education and skills that will be necessary for success in the future economy. I cringe when I hear someone say that, “not everyone needs to go to college.” The statement is true of course, but it masks a more important truth. Successful people will need to be able to learn at the college level. Change will come at a pace that requires continuous learning of new information and skills. The ability to read and learn at the level expected of a college freshman will be necessary for success in skilled trades, health occupations, and just about any field we can imagine. It is a great disservice to children and parents to lead them to believe that they can succeed with less.
- Prepare community and regional infrastructure for success. For example, gigabit internet service will be more important than highways and railroads. An increasing number of businesses require high-speed and high volume internet service at all of their locations. That’s often true of small startup businesses and may be true for in-home education opportunities. Communities that lack gigabit service may be left behind as badly as those that lacked electricity, roads or railroads a century ago.
- Re-design public education and libraries to support lifelong learning so that all of us can continuously acquire new knowledge and skills as we need them, regardless of our economic status or geographic location. We can discover ways to use the internet to deliver our finest instruction and most complete information to every American.
Issues of this kind should be on the agendas of national, state and local governments. Instead we are arguing about voter IDs and bathroom privileges. I don’t know all the answers, but I’m sure of one thing. The people who find the right answers will be the ones who are asking the right questions.
STICKS STONES AND STEREOTYPES
Election campaigns are under way and the name-calling season is open. Names, labels and stereotypes can influence our opinions and our elections so it’s important to be aware them. Continue reading STICKS STONES AND STEREOTYPES
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUR INDUSTRIAL MEGASITE
When the Randolph County Commissioners decided to develop an industrial megasite, I was cautiously optimistic because they are attempting to create much-needed economic and job growth. Today it is alarming that our usually fiscally conservative Commissioners have committed $10 million – essentially all of the money available for economic development projects – without adequate planning. Continue reading ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUR INDUSTRIAL MEGASITE
An Economy Divided Against Itself
On June 16, 1858 a little-known candidate for the Illinois Senate spoke these words, “A house divided against itself cannot stand. I believe this government cannot endure, permanently, half slave and half free. I do not expect the Union to be dissolved — I do not expect the house to fall — but I do expect it will cease to be divided. It will become all one thing or all the other. Either the opponents of slavery will arrest the further spread of it, and place it where the public mind shall rest in the belief that it is in the course of ultimate extinction; or its advocates will push it forward, till it shall become lawful in all the States, old as well as new — North as well as South.” Abraham Lincoln was defeated in that election.
Twenty-first Century America is a house divided. Like Lincoln, we should expect that our nation will cease to be divided, not that it will fall. Like the America of 1858, we must choose our destiny. We may become a commonwealth where everyone has opportunity to develop her or his full potential; benefitting financially and socially from personal efforts. Or we may become a winner-take-all nation where the wealthy grant only subsistence to those who labor. Continue reading An Economy Divided Against Itself
WE CAN END PERMANENT UNDERCLASSES
The world and our nation have permanent underclasses – people with little wealth and few opportunities for education or upward mobility. Their attempts to draw attention to their needs are often met with contempt or repression. Continue reading WE CAN END PERMANENT UNDERCLASSES