“There are people whose lives are so hard they break.” Those are the words of Eileen Crimmins, a professor at the University of Southern California. She wasn’t talking about Syrian refugees or undocumented immigrants. She was talking about a large subgroup of white American citizens.
The average life expectancy of white Americans age 25-54 declined between 1999 and 2014 because of a rapid rise in premature deaths from drug overdoses, suicides, and cirrhosis associated with alcohol consumption. The death rate from drug overdoses among 25 -34 year old whites was five times higher in 2014 than in 1999. It tripled among 35 – 44 year olds. By 2014, the overdose death rate among whites was double the rate for blacks or Hispanics. Although whites still live longer, the black-white gap closed considerably because of the premature white deaths.
The rising death rates are heavily concentrated among whites without college degrees. Rural areas and small towns of the Southeast, Southwest, and the Midwestern “rustbelt” have been especially hard hit.
Why are so many white Americans killing themselves with drugs, alcohol and guns? (Almost half of all American suicides are by gun.) The most common hypothesis among researchers is that these are “deaths of despair” among Americans who no longer have hope for a satisfactory future.
Economists, sociologists, psychologists and public health researchers are only beginning to study and understand this troubling trend. It’s clear that the problems of poverty, lack of jobs with good wages, and lack of education have existed at higher rates among black Americans than among whites for all of our history but it’s the white Americans who are killing themselves with drugs, alcohol and guns. Why?
One hypothesis is that this large group of white Americans have been taught to expect that, like their parents, they could support a family and live middle-class lives with a high school education. They counted on factory work, and semi-skilled labor to pay for necessities and a few luxuries. Those expectations have been shattered. They blame corporations, immigrants, government, and public policy (such as trade treaties) for their plight. They also point a finger at themselves and far too many turn to drugs, alcohol, and suicide as avenues of escape.
The white labor class may be suffering so much despair because they are just now experiencing what the black labor class, unprotected by labor unions and discriminated against by employers, have known from childhood. They can’t pay their way into the middle class. In many cases their marriages have failed and their families have shattered under the stress of economic pressures. Many lack the literacy skills, time and money to pursue better opportunities. They see little hope for themselves and their communities.
Our economy will use the least expensive combination of machines, computers, and people to produce goods and services. Then it will sell those goods and services in exchange for more money and repeat the process. In that environment, it is up to each individual to find a way to succeed. Otherwise, the economy will find you to be expendable.
Blame is irrelevant. The important question is, “What future will we choose to create?” The replacement of human work with automation and artificial intelligence has barely begun and no one knows how rapidly it will accelerate. A report by PWC, an international consulting firm, says that 38% of American jobs are at high risk of replacement by automation in the next 15 years.
We shouldn’t even try to stop the trend, but we do need to prepare for it. Public education must be redesigned to prepare every student for life-long learning at the college level. Parents and communities must encourage and support it because jobs with good wages will require continuous learning at that level. Even if manufacturing returns to the US, the old jobs will not accompany it. There will be far more automation and the new jobs will require skills that few of us have today. In addition, minimum wage, healthcare, and other public policies must be sufficient to support viable families.
As we envision our futures, it’s good to remember Jackson Browne’s line, “You can dream but you can never go back the way you came.” We can create a good future, but it won’t be the same as our past. We must not sacrifice another generation of Americans by preparing them for a future that won’t exist. Instead, we should prepare them for hope and success.
References for further reading:
Commonwealth fund brief on white mortality trends