On the horizon of America’s sometimes bizarre political landscape are two Supreme Court decisions with unusual implications. Most conservatives and Republicans want the Court to rule that states can ban same-sex marriage and that Obama Care can’t subsidize the cost of health insurance in states that haven’t set up their own insurance exchanges. Most liberals and Democrats are wishing for the opposite. It may be that the political fortunes of the two parties will be better if they lose these cases than if they win. If Democrats and Liberals win both cases, then Republicans can continue to demonize the health care law for its imperfections and complain about activist judges who overturned the “will of the people” by allowing same-sex marriage. Republicans seem well prepared for losing in court, but not for the consequences of winning. They have no plan for delivering affordable health care to low and middle-income Americans. It isn’t free. It is a fact that many people of modest means will suffer and die without health care if there is no tax-funded means to help pay for it. If Republicans win in court, they will need to support:
- letting the uninsured die without health care or;
- creating state exchanges or;
- replacing Obama Care with some other way of financing care for Americans of modest means.
They are not prepared to make such decisions. A Republican win in court on health care would end the premium subsidies in states that didn’t set up their own websites as health insurance marketplaces. Obama Care could continue to subsidize premiums in states that do have exchanges. In that case, residents of states without exchanges would receive none of the benefits of Obama Care but would continue paying taxes to subsidize it in other states. President Obama might be able to offer a quick solution to that problem by offering states the option of contracting with the federal government for operation of an exchange. Presto. The state would have an exchange and its residents could continue receiving subsidies. But the decision to contract for operation of an exchange would require approval by the state legislature and/or governor. If red-state legislatures refused, then their voters would continue to pay the taxes and get none of the benefits (the same problem already faced by taxpayers in states that refused to expand Medicaid).
A Republican win on same-sex marriage will bring another set of problems for them. Having won the opportunity to ban same-sex marriage, they will have to make decisions in an environment where a growing majority of voters think it should be legal. 69 percent of Americans age 18-33 favor it, as do 54 percent of those age 50-64. Recent polls show that in 33 states more residents of voting age favor allowing same-sex marriage than oppose it. In Nebraska, the median (26th ranked) state, same-sex marriage is supported by 54 to 39 percent with 7 percent having no opinion. What positions will Republican candidates adopt in battleground or red states where growing numbers of voters favor same-sex marriage? Colorado-60 percent, Wisconsin-59, New Mexico and Arizona-58, Ohio-53, Florida-52. Even in red states like Texas and Indiana, same-sex marriage supporters outnumber opponents by narrow margins. It’s become close in North Carolina which opposes it by a 49-44 margin with 7 percent having no opinion.
Liberals and Democrats are comfortably positioned politically no matter what the court does. They can be gracious winners on same-sex marriage; and if they lose in court they can win on the issue in most state contests. If they lose in court on Obama Care, liberals and Democrats can support creating state exchanges that would return the taxes they’ve paid for health care in the form of premium subsidies. If they win in court, they can acknowledge opportunities to improve the law and go to work on making it better.
The best political hope for Democrats might be for Republicans to win in court so that health care and same-sex marriage will be state-level election issues. Conversely, the best political hope for Republicans may be to lose both court cases so that both will be finalized before the next elections. I’d rather think and write about the issues than the politics, but the next few months are irresistibly fascinating. I can’t help wondering what the Supreme Court justices think about the implications of the decisions they will be making.